Bitcoin and Ether: How Long Did Investors Stay Below Their Entry Price?

Reports of record highs refer to the market. For an investor, however, what matters is their own entry price. At a new all-time high in the same euro price series, earlier entries are in profit, so the question is a different one: how deep and for how long were investors below their entry price beforehand? The analysis describes this using historical euro prices of Bitcoin and Ether. A single position is considered, not an overall portfolio and not an actual client account.

The result: almost every entry was at some point below its entry price, 93 to 95 per cent of the entry days examined for Bitcoin and 95 to 96 per cent for Ether. After twelve months, 35 per cent of Bitcoin entries and 46 per cent of Ether entries were still at a loss. After 36 months, none of the 2,334 Bitcoin entries in this history was at a loss, while 16 per cent of Ether entries still were. The time below the entry price was longer for Ether. The most unfavourable entry observed, in each case at the then peak, was at some point 83.1 per cent (Bitcoin) and 93.5 per cent (Ether) below the entry price and stayed continuously below it for 1,095 and 1,106 days respectively.

The test set-up

The basis is daily closing prices in euros from 29 May 2017 to 18 October 2026. Every calendar day from 29 May 2017 counts as a possible entry with a single purchase, observed in each case over 12, 24 and 36 months. Only entries with a fully available observation window are included (3,065 / 2,700 / 2,334 entry days, the last entry day being 18 October 2025 / 2024 / 2023 respectively). Adjacent entries run through almost the same price paths; the larger number of entry days therefore does not mean correspondingly greater statistical certainty, but it does map the possible entry prices more completely. Fees and taxes are not taken into account.

Three metrics describe the entry-price perspective. The share at a loss indicates how many entries were below the entry price at the end of the period. The maximum loss relative to entry price is the lowest percentage return from the purchase price within the observation window, or zero if the price never fell below it. The days below entry price count all calendar days with a closing price below the entry price, even if the entry price was briefly regained in between. The time to the first return to the entry price would by contrast be of little informative value, because the entry price can be briefly regained and then fallen below again.

The entry loss differs from the maximum drawdown: an investor can be clearly in profit relative to the entry price and still have suffered a large drawdown from the interim peak. An example: for a Bitcoin entry on 1 October 2020 (9,049 euros), the price on 8 November 2021 was 58,293 euros. By 21 November 2022 it fell to 15,387 euros, a drawdown of 73.6 per cent, yet was still 70 per cent above the entry price.

After twelve, 24 and 36 months: long periods below the entry price

For Bitcoin, the median number of days below the purchase price during the first twelve months was 101, and the median maximum loss relative to entry price was 26 per cent. The average of the days below entry price lies above the median because individual entries stayed below the entry price for a long time. Within the 36 months, the median number of days below the entry price was 226 for Ether positions and 141 for Bitcoin positions.

Positions can fall below their entry price again after two years

Reaching the entry price once does not necessarily end the burden. Looking at the entry days with complete 36 months (2,334), for Bitcoin at least one closing price below the entry price still occurred after the end of the first year in 48 per cent of cases, and after the end of two years in 26 per cent. For Ether the figures were 69 and 55 per cent.

Of the 378 Ether entry days that were still at a loss after 36 months, 237 (63 per cent) come from the years 2021 and 2022, plus 78 from 2023, 53 from 2017 and 10 from 2018. The results thus depend on the entry phases included; a finer resolution of the entry days does not change this either.

On 18 October 2026, positions purchased on 461 of the 3,429 Bitcoin entry dates (13 per cent) and 998 of the 3,429 Ether entry dates (29 per cent) were below their respective purchase prices. This also included older entries that had in the meantime already been back in profit.

What the most unfavourable entry observed meant

Median and average describe the distribution, not the burden on an individual investor. The most unfavourable cases observed show what an investor actually had to bear. They are not an upper limit for future losses. The following rows show partly different entries: the deepest loss, the worst final result and the longest loss phase do not have to concern the same purchase.

For Bitcoin, the maximum loss relative to entry price and the longest completed loss phase concerned the same entry; for Ether these extreme cases were different. From the first day after purchase, the positions of 16 December 2017 and 13 January 2018 stayed continuously below the entry price for 1,095 and 1,106 days respectively. For Bitcoin, the most affected entry was below the entry price on 1,095 of 1,096 calendar days of the 36-month window; for Ether, nine entries were below on every calendar day after purchase until the end of their respective windows. Over the longer term these entries recovered: on 18 October 2026, the Bitcoin entry was 336.5 per cent and the Ether entry 87.5 per cent above the entry price. Loss phases for more recent purchases at a peak, by contrast, are still ongoing: the Ether entry of 8 November 2021 had been continuously below the entry price for at least 1,805 days on the reference date.

What this means for the portfolio decision

For asset managers this means: the burden on a mandate from a crypto position consists not only of the depth of the loss but also of the time below the entry price. For Bitcoin, depending on the observation horizon, the median number of days below the entry price was 101 to 141; individual positions stayed below it for almost the entire 36-month window. For advisory work, the most unfavourable case observed is an important stress yardstick, but neither the only advisory question nor a limit for future risks. The maximum losses relative to entry price observed were 83.1 per cent for Bitcoin and 93.5 per cent for Ether. From the first day after purchase, these positions stayed continuously below the entry price for 1,095 and 1,106 days respectively. The question is whether the mandate could bear such a depth of loss and such a duration. This is relevant for risk conversations because the personal entry price is an important reference point for many clients. A new all-time high does not say how deep and for how long an investor was below the entry price beforehand.

For practice, it follows that the allocation should be chosen and communicated so that a mandate can bear both the depth of the loss and longer phases below the entry price. In the historical data, the median time below the entry price was longer for Ether than for Bitcoin. The results apply to single positions, the period examined and a price series in euros.

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Data basis and limitations: Daily closing prices, BTC/EUR and ETH/EUR, 29 May 2017 to 18 October 2026 (daily cut-off 00:00 UTC). Single purchase on every calendar day; cross-check with entries at month-end only (101 / 89 / 77 windows): loss shares and medians of the loss depth deviate by at most three percentage points, the days below entry price by at most 20 days, and the most unfavourable entry losses are −76.7 per cent (Bitcoin) and −91.7 per cent (Ether). Single position excluding fees, taxes and staking. Overlapping starts are not independent; the history is limited but contains several pronounced upswing and downswing phases. The rows for 12, 24 and 36 months contain different groups of entries. One trading venue, prices in euros in nominal terms. The analysis describes past distributions and contains no forecast.

No investment advice. Market observation only.

A contribution by 21Nexus. The content is for general information and context only. It constitutes neither investment advice nor a recommendation to buy or sell financial instruments, and does not replace individual advice.